Climate Change Effects in Torbay and Beyond

The Future Effects of Climate Change in Torbay

In 2002 the UK Climate Impacts Partnership and the Met Office’s Hadley Centre released climate change predictions for specific areas of the UK. These scenarios will be updated again in 2009 with the latest climate data.

In Torbay it is predicted that the average annual temperature will be up to 4°C higher by 2080 than it was in 1990. This will lead to a 50% reduction in summer rainfall and a 20% increase in winter rainfall as well as an increase in sea level of up to 90 centimetres. Changes to our climate on this scale will have wide ranging impacts upon agricultural practices, water resources, coastal defences, transport, public health, wildlife, landscape, and the make-up of Torbay’s economy.

The Future Effects of Climate Change in the UK

By the end of the century, the average yearly temperature of the UK could be between 1°C and 4.5°C hotter than today, depending on how high greenhouse gas levels rise. The land will heat up faster than the sea, and the South East more than the North West. Summer and Autumn will generally heat up more than winter and spring, and as the nights turn hotter and stickier the sort of temperatures we currently get at 7pm could be experienced at 11pm by 2100.

By the end of this century, we could be facing intense heatwaves reaching up to mid 40°C in some places, more like the heat in 2003 that killed thousands of people across the rest of Europe. Temperatures as high as this have probably not been experienced since the last great warm period over 100,000 years ago, at the same time that hippos roamed England. As the summers become hotter and drier, drought could become a major threat. Anyone who lived through the long, hot summer of 1976 will remember the drought that reached crisis proportions: water rationing, building subsidence, withered crops, diseased trees, wildfires and deaths from the heat. Such could be the face of summers to come if we don't learn to change our behaviours and take steps to prevent further climate change.

The animal and plant worlds could also be thrown into turmoil and many species that we traditionally associate with Britain may disappear. Needless to say, the white Christmas could become a thing of the past, while the UK's green and pleasant land will become more brown and unpleasant as the climate becomes less suited to growing lawns and gardens.

The effects on health could also be profound. Aside from obvious issues like hay fever, there could be an increase in cataracts, skin cancer and even tropical diseases such as Dengue fever and West Nile virus. Even now, mosquitoes carrying such diseases are invading the US because of rising temperatures. Overall, it's clear that the cost to society, the environment, our health and the economy is going to far outweigh any perceived benefits of a warmer UK.

The Future Effects of Climate Change on Developing Countries

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that "the effects of climate change are expected to be greatest in developing countries in terms of loss of life, and relative effects on investment and economy". Livelihoods built for generations on particular patterns of farming may quickly become impossible. If not addressed, climate change is likely to place an additional 80-120 million people at risk of hunger; 70 to 80 per cent of these will be in Africa.

In Latin America and the Caribbean it is predicted that:

• Hurricanes and tropical storms will increase in intensity. With 26 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes, the 2005 hurricane season is rated as one of the most active and destructive in history.
• Sea level rise is likely to hit coastal areas, leading to loss of coastal land, infrastructure, and biodiversity, as well as the intrusion of soil-contaminating saltwater. Sixty of Latin America's seventy seven largest cities are located on the coast.
• Warming in high mountain regions is melting glaciers, snow and ice, affecting farming and the availability of water to coastal cities and tourist activities. It is estimated that by 2025 about 70 per cent of the population in South America and Mexico will live in regions with low water supply.

In Asia it is predicted that:

• Rainfall will become more variable during the Indian summer monsoon. The timing and intensity of rainfall will become more erratic and between seasons;
• Heavy rainfall and tropical cyclone intensity may increase due to disruption of the El Nino cycle and increasing sea surface temperature. A 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal could increase tropical cyclone intensity by 10%.

The principal consequences of these changes in climate are greater risks to food and water security, and greater health risks, which will affect the poor and vulnerable the most.

If we take immediate effective action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts of climate change upon society and the natural environment can be reduced.

Courtesy of the Energy Saving Trust.

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